ASEAN
This model is used to explore the potential benefits of the ASEAN Power Grid - a set of proposed cross-border electricity interconnectors between the 10 ASEAN Member States (AMS). As with all energy system models, the inputs include a range of datasets and assumptions (e.g. technology cost projections, discount rates). All of these inputs are described here in order to allow for the model to be reviewed, re-run, and re-purposed.
Model scope
The model aims to represent the electricity systems of AMS as accurately as possible, subject to constraints on data and computation time. The main aspects that improve the accuracy of the model's representation of AMS' electricity systems are their spatial and temporal resolution.
Spatial resolution
The model represents all AMS as individually, with Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines at a sub-national level and the remaining five AMS at the national level. This is shown in the table and map below. (NOTE: This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.)
** AMS regional definitions **
| Code | Country | Region |
|---|---|---|
| BRNXX | Brunei | - |
| IDNJW | Indonesia | Jawa |
| IDNKA | Indonesia | Kalimantan |
| IDNML | Indonesia | Maluku |
| IDNNU | Indonesia | Nusa Tenggara |
| IDNPP | Indonesia | Papua |
| IDNSL | Indonesia | Sulawesi |
| IDNSM | Indonesia | Sumatera |
| KHMXX | Cambodia | - |
| LAOXX | Laos | - |
| MMRXX | Myanmar | - |
| MYSPE | Malaysia | Central |
| MYSSH | Malaysia | East |
| MYSSK | Malaysia | North |
| PHLLU | Philippines | Luzon |
| PHLMI | Philippines | Mindanao |
| PHLVI | Philippines | Visayas |
| SGPXX | Singapore | - |
| THACE | Thailand | Centre |
| THANO | Thailand | North |
| THASO | Thailand | South |
| VNMCE | Vietnam | Centre |
| VNMNO | Vietnam | North |
| VNMSO | Vietnam | South |
Temporal resolution
Each year is divided into 2 'Seasons' [S1-S6]:
| Season | Months |
|---|---|
| S1 | Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, Dec |
| S2 | Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep |
Each 'Season' is further divided into 6 'Daily Time Brackets':
| Daily time bracket | Hours of the day |
|---|---|
| D1 | 0, 4 |
| D2 | 4, 8 |
| D3 | 8, 12 |
| D4 | 12, 16 |
| D5 | 16, 20 |
| D6 | 20, 24 |
Together, there are 12 representative 'timeslices' in the model. The temporal resolution is the same for the entire model period.
Model horizon
Base year - 2021
End year - 2050
Key assumptions
Discount rates
The model includes two types of discount rates (DR): 'social' and 'financial'. The social DR is applied across the entire model and represents the relative weighting of present and future costs and benefits. A low social DR weights the present and the future more similarly than a high DR. The financial DR is technology-specific and represents the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for a given technology (e.g. power plant). The model assumes a value of 10% for both the social and financial discount rates. The latter is based on the IEA Cost of Capital Observatory.
Data
Below is a summary of all the input data used in the model.
Technology costs
Battery costs from NREL. All other costs from OSeMOSYS Global and PLEXOS World.
Technology cost projections (Capital)
| Technology | Unit | 2021 | 2035 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battery storage | USD2020/kWh | 330 | 186 | 149 |
| Biomass | USD2020/kWh | 1600 | 1500 | 1400 |
| Gas - Combined Cycle (CCGT) | USD2020/kWh | 673 | 663 | 654 |
| Coal - CCS | USD2020/kWh | 3355 | 3208 | 3061 |
| Coal | USD2020/kWh | 1511 | 1499 | 1488 |
| Geothermal | USD2020/kWh | 3423 | 3273 | 3123 |
| Hydro | USD2020/kWh | 1792 | 1770 | 1748 |
| Gas - Open Cycle (OCGT) | USD2020/kWh | 672 | 658 | 645 |
| Solar Photovoltaic | USD2020/kWh | 602 | 542 | 483 |
| Nuclear | USD2020/kWh | 4000 | 4000 | 4000 |
| Waste | USD2020/kWh | 5200 | 4900 | 4600 |
| Wave | USD2020/kWh | 5100 | 5100 | 5100 |
| Wind - Offshore | USD2020/kWh | 2634 | 2473 | 2313 |
| Wind - Onshore | USD2020/kWh | 1280 | 1209 | 1138 |
Renewable Energy Profiles
Hourly renewable energy profiles for wind (onshore and offshore) and solar PV in each province were obtained from renewables.ninja. Data for 2020 was used.
Renewable Energy Potentials
Renewable energy potentials by province (GW)
| Node | Country | Region | Solar PV | Hydropower | Onshore wind | Offshore wind | Geothermal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRNXX | Brunei | - | 0.16 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.372 | 0 |
| IDNJW | Indonesia | Jawa | 40.8 | 4.95 | 0.82 | 11.52 | 10.27 |
| IDNKA | Indonesia | Kalimantan | 133.69 | 21.6 | 0.09 | 1.26 | 0.05 |
| IDNML | Indonesia | Maluku | 1.88 | 0.73 | 4.86 | 68.3 | 0.46 |
| IDNNU | Indonesia | Nusa Tenggara | 6.04 | 0.36 | 5.99 | 84.17 | 1.21 |
| IDNPP | Indonesia | Papua | 16.05 | 22.4 | 0.16 | 2.25 | 0.06 |
| IDNSL | Indonesia | Sulawesi | 15.5 | 10.3 | 6.54 | 91.91 | 1.9 |
| IDNSM | Indonesia | Sumatera | 150.72 | 15.6 | 1.25 | 17.58 | 12.54 |
| KHMXX | Cambodia | - | 123.03 | 10 | 125.31 | 0 | 0 |
| LAOXX | Laos | - | 39.46 | 20 | 54.89 | 0 | 0 |
| MMRXX | Myanmar | - | 240.91 | 39.71 | 324.8 | 0 | 0 |
| MYSPE | Malaysia | Central | 26.21 | 14.23 | 32.31 | 0 | 0 |
| MYSSH | Malaysia | East | 4.5 | 0.38 | 8.06 | 0 | 0 |
| MYSSK | Malaysia | North | 14.22 | 5.39 | 16.09 | 0 | 0 |
| PHLLU | Philippines | Luzon | 15.66 | 11.64 | 27.61 | 60 | 0.76 |
| PHLMI | Philippines | Mindanao | 18.56 | 4.86 | 37.72 | 60 | 0.82 |
| PHLVI | Philippines | Visayas | 8.49 | 0 | 17.1 | 60 | 2.42 |
| SGPXX | Singapore | - | 0.42 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 0 |
| THACE | Thailand | Centre | 70.79 | 3.95 | 76.48 | 0 | 0 |
| THANO | Thailand | North | 285.97 | 10.89 | 315 | 0 | 0 |
| THASO | Thailand | South | 26.48 | 0.31 | 35.81 | 0 | 0 |
| VNMCE | Vietnam | Centre | 37.44 | 16.45 | 44.94 | 0 | 0 |
| VNMNO | Vietnam | North | 18.44 | 16.16 | 24.19 | 0 | 0 |
| VNMSO | Vietnam | South | 54.18 | 2.39 | 54.89 | 261 | 0 |
Electricity demand projections
Electricity demands for all 24 nodes, current and projected, are inputs to the model.
Electricity demand projections (TWh)
| Code | Country | Region | 2021 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRNXX | Brunei | - | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| IDNJW | Indonesia | Jawa | 179 | 263 | 418 | 779 |
| IDNKA | Indonesia | Kalimantan | 12 | 24 | 41 | 74 |
| IDNML | Indonesia | Maluku | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| IDNNU | Indonesia | Nusa Tenggara | 8 | 13 | 19 | 30 |
| IDNPP | Indonesia | Papua | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| IDNSL | Indonesia | Sulawesi | 12 | 20 | 34 | 58 |
| IDNSM | Indonesia | Sumatera | 43 | 80 | 140 | 249 |
| KHMXX | Cambodia | - | 10 | 26 | 61 | 139 |
| LAOXX | Laos | - | 6 | 16 | 59 | 245 |
| MMRXX | Myanmar | - | 14 | 16 | 20 | 30 |
| MYSPE | Malaysia | Central | 134 | 213 | 426 | 1074 |
| MYSSH | Malaysia | East | 10 | 13 | 21 | 45 |
| MYSSK | Malaysia | North | 16 | 21 | 36 | 82 |
| PHLLU | Philippines | Luzon | 70 | 123 | 232 | 513 |
| PHLMI | Philippines | Mindanao | 18 | 32 | 61 | 136 |
| PHLVI | Philippines | Visayas | 14 | 25 | 48 | 106 |
| SGPXX | Singapore | - | 55 | 63 | 79 | 114 |
| THACE | Thailand | Centre | 119 | 153 | 205 | 295 |
| THANO | Thailand | North | 89 | 123 | 168 | 244 |
| THASO | Thailand | South | 21 | 28 | 37 | 53 |
| VNMCE | Vietnam | Centre | 46 | 101 | 227 | 262 |
| VNMNO | Vietnam | North | 96 | 210 | 475 | 548 |
| VNMSO | Vietnam | South | 105 | 194 | 400 | 445 |
Fuel Prices
Fuel price projections
| FUEL | COUNTRY | UNIT | PRICE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | Brunei | $/mt | 130 |
| Coal | Indonesia | $/mt | 70 |
| Coal | Laos | $/mt | 100 |
| Coal | Myanmar | $/mt | 130 |
| Coal | Malaysia | $/mt | 130 |
| Coal | Philippines | $/mt | 130 |
| Coal | Thailand | $/mt | 100 |
| Coal | Vietnam | $/mt | 100 |
| Natural gas | Brunei | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Natural gas | Indonesia | $/mmbtu | 12 |
| Natural gas | Laos | $/mmbtu | 15 |
| Natural gas | Myanmar | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Natural gas | Malaysia | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Natural gas | Philippines | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Natural gas | Thailand | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Natural gas | Vietnam | $/mmbtu | 9 |
| Oil | - | $/bbl | 90 |